• 49% More Pandemic-Era Mortgage Defaults Detected by VantageScore 4.0 Compared to Classic FICO
• VantageScore 4.0 Predicts More Defaults in Both Normal and Economic Stress Periods
• VantageScore 4.0 Identifies Millions More Creditworthy Borrowers with Reduced Risk

SAN FRANCISCO, Aug. 18, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- VantageScore 4.0 predicted up to 49% more mortgage defaults leading into the COVID-19 pandemic period than Classic FICO, according to the latest head-to-head comparative analysis published today by VantageScore. Leveraging the Fannie Mae Single-Family Loan Performance dataset, which tracks over 20 million conforming, first-lien, fixed-rate mortgages originated between 2013 and 2023, the analysis underscores VantageScore 4.0's substantially superior predictive power over Classic FICO. 

"Our unique, loan-level analysis confirms the findings of multiple third-party independent studies—VantageScore 4.0 offers superior predictive performance over Classic FICO," said Dr. Andrada Pacheco, Chief Data Scientist at VantageScore. "Now is the time for mortgage lenders to switch to VantageScore 4.0 and avoid future losses."

VantageScore 4.0 uses trended data and alternative data (including rental, utilities and telecommunications payment histories) to enhance the assessment of creditworthiness. It was the first credit score to incorporate these factors, expanding access to credit for millions more Americans. VantageScore 4.0 utilization climbed to 42 billion credit scores used in 2024, a record 55% growth in usage that establishes VantageScore as one of the most broadly used credit scores in the United States. Eight of the top 10 U.S. banks and more than 3,700 financial institutions, banks and government agencies use VantageScore. 

Additional key findings include:

• VantageScore 4.0 Outperforms Classic FICO for Mortgages: VantageScore 4.0 outperforms Classic FICO by identifying up to 13% more defaults across all mortgage loan ownership types and delivering up to 3.8% predictive lift.
• Predicts More Defaults During Both Normal and Economic Stress Periods: Utilizing VantageScore's patented incorporation of trended data and alternative data, VantageScore 4.0 identified 11% more high-risk loans entering the pandemic period.
• Identifies More Creditworthy Borrowers with Reduced Risk: The new study also found that borrowers at the VantageScore 620 credit score tier – the score needed for GSE-funded mortgages – have a lower default rate (6.5%) than those excluded (10.1%), indicating that VantageScore 4.0 both reduces risk and expands access to creditworthy borrowers.

Click here to download the full report. More information about VantageScore 4.0 for Mortgages and migration resources for lenders are available at VantageScore's Mortgage Conversion Center. Lenders can also reach out directly to Mortgage@VantageScore.com with questions and to request support.

About VantageScore^®
VantageScore is the fastest-growing credit scoring company in the U.S., and is known for the industry's most innovative, predictive and inclusive credit score models. In 2024, usage of VantageScore increased by 55% to hit 42 billion credit scores. More than 3,700 institutions, including the top 10 U.S. banks, use VantageScore credit scores and digital tools to provide consumer credit products or generate greater insights into consumer behavior. The VantageScore 4.0 credit scoring model scores 33 million more people than traditional models. With the FHFA mandating the use of VantageScore 4.0 for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guaranteed mortgages, the company is also ushering in a new era for mortgage lending and helping to close the homeownership gap.

VantageScore is an independently managed joint venture company and owners include the three Nationwide Consumer Reporting Agencies (NCRAs) – Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion.

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SOURCE VantageScore